Treasury traders are standing firm behind wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply in 2024, even as a bunch of employment and service-industry data whipsawed yields Friday.
Swap contracts tied to Fed meeting dates are again pricing in almost six quarter-point cuts and see a more than 70% chance of a quarter-point policy-rate decrease in March. While those bets pared following a job creation report that topped estimates and came with hot wages, the market quickly bounced as a deeper read into the payrolls report, large revision to November payrolls, and a soft reading on the US service sector emboldened traders.
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